Slow Growth for Global Air Traffic

08.08.2012 Aviation & Space
Slow Growth for Global Air Traffic

Slow Growth for Global Air Traffic

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Global traffic results for June showed a continued slowing of growth in the demand for air transport, in line with weak business and consumer confidence, said the International Air Transport Association (Iata).

Year-on-year, demand for air travel in June expanded by 6.2%. Capacity grew by a much more cautious 4.5% leaving load factors at 81%. While this appears to be a healthy growth rate, the growth trend since early 2012 has seen a slowdown, Iata said in a statement.

This is illustrated by isolating the February through June trend which shows 2% annualized growth. That is a major slowdown from the 8% annualized growth rate experienced from mid-2011 through to January 2012.

June air freight volumes recorded a 0.8% increase compared to the previous year. This brings seasonally adjusted June demand about 2.5% above the low reached in the fourth quarter of 2011. The global picture masks strong growth for Middle East airlines (17.9%) and the improvement in North American air freight demand.

“The uncertainty that we see in the global economic situation is being reflected in air transport’s performance,” said Tony Tyler, Iata’s Director General and CEO.

“Although there are some pockets of solid performance, it is difficult to detect a strong trend, positive or negative, at the global level. Passenger markets have been growing more slowly since the beginning of the year and freight markets gains have been mostly very weak.

“The net effect is a demand limbo as consumers and businesses hedge their spending while awaiting clarity on the European economic front,” he added.

June demand in international passenger markets was up 7.4% on the previous year. The growth trend, however, shows little promise.

While passenger markets experienced strong growth through to the end of 2011, this has slowed continuously in 2012. For example, from May to June 2012 demand was up just 0.2%. When looked at over the second quarter of 2012, the trend in international air travel has been an annualized growth rate of just over 2%.

Middle East carriers were the strongest performers with demand growth of 18.2% outstripping a capacity expansion of 13.4%.

Load factors stood at 78.6%. In contrast to the overall market, the growth trend in this region has been robust throughout 2012, gaining a further 1.9% in June compared to May.

African carriers showed growth of 10.1%, slightly behind a capacity expansion of 10.6%. At 65.0%, the region’s load factor was the weakest.

While European airlines experienced strong growth in June (7.3%), well ahead of the May result (4.3%), North American airlines saw 1.6% growth in demand while capacity was cut by 0.3% compared to the previous June.

Middle East carriers recorded a 17.9% increase in freight demand against a 14.2% increase in capacity. Middle Eastern airlines have been adding capacity to meet the need for moving goods between the Middle East and Africa and also toward Europe and Asia.

“Governments around the world are recognizing the important role of tourism in driving economic growth. Aviation is the backbone of the tourism industry. On average some 50% of international tourists arrive by air,” Tyler said.

“To benefit the most from tourism, governments need comprehensive and internally coordinated policies. In many parts of the world, aviation suffers from high taxes, insufficient infrastructure and cumbersome regulation,” he added.

“Tourism and aviation ministries understand the catalytic impact of aviation on the economy. Today the industry supports some 57 million jobs and $2.2 trillion in economic activity. The challenge is to get all ministries aligned and on the same page with policies to facilitate sustainable aviation growth that will drive further benefits across local, regional and national economies,” Tyler concluded.
 



 
 

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